Time-Series Analysis of Climate Change Effect on Increasing of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Case with Geographic Information System Approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is an infectious
disease which is still a national health problem. The cases
tend to increase every year and spread wider along with
human activities and mobilization. The phenomenon of
global warming and climate change is expected to increase
the number of dengue cases. Dengue cases in Yogyakarta
still fluctuate every year. This study aims to apply timeseries
analysis to identify the effect of climate change on
the increasing cases of DHF with Geographic Information
System approach. This study was an observational analytic
study which used an ecological study design. This research
was conducted in April-November 2019 in Yogyakarta by
using time-series analysis techniques and Geographic
Information System overlay techniques. The result of
study shown climate factors (rainfall, air temperature,
and humidity) simultaneously influence the incidence of
DHF (p-value = 0.000). All villages in Yogyakarta were
an endemic area in 2013-2019. Therefore, the community
should take precautions to prevent dengue infection
and increase early vigilance when rainfall season,
temperature and humidity increase. Recommendation for
District Health Office to use weather data in the planning
of prevention and control programs DHF.